IB Predicted Grades: How They Are Set and How to Raise Them

A predicted grade is the school's formal forecast of the grade a student will achieve in each Diploma subject at the end of the course, on the IB scale from 1 to 7, plus the expected points from Theory of Knowledge and the Extended Essay. Added up, they give a predicted total out of 45.

The prediction belongs to the school: teachers propose it, the IB coordinator or a senior leader usually signs it off, and it goes on the university application. The IB itself does not predict anything for admissions. For UK universities the predicted grades are the application: an offer is made on the prediction and then made conditional on the final result. Many European universities and the most selective US ones read them the same way, alongside other evidence.

Every school has its own policy, but the inputs are almost always the same. The heaviest is usually the autumn mock of the final year, because it is the closest thing to the real papers under real timing. Then come the internal assessment drafts (in Mathematics the exploration is 20% of the grade, in Physics the investigation is 20%), the class tests of the first year and the start of the second, and the teacher's judgement of the trajectory: a student moving from 4 to 5 to 6 is predicted differently from one sitting at 6 all along.

Some schools cap predictions at the mock grade plus one; others run a moderation meeting where departments compare notes. It is worth asking the IB coordinator directly how your school does it, because the answer tells you exactly where effort moves the number.

For students finishing the Diploma in May 2027, the calendar runs like this. Applications to Oxford, Cambridge and most medicine, dentistry and veterinary courses close at 6pm UK time on 15 October 2026, so predictions for those students are fixed in September or early October. Almost every other UK course has its equal-consideration deadline on 13 January 2027, and most schools send their predictions well before, usually after the autumn mocks in November or December.

US early rounds close around 1 November and use the grades and predictions available then. The practical consequence: between now and the end of the autumn mocks is the last window in which a student can still change the number universities will see. For students sitting the November 2026 session (exams from 23 October to 13 November 2026, results in early January 2027) the logic is different, because the final grade arrives before most offers are confirmed.

Yes, but only before they are sent, and only with evidence. Teachers do not raise a prediction because a family asks; they raise it because the evidence moved. Three things move it. A stronger autumn mock: in Mathematics and Physics the gap between a 5 and a 6 is often a handful of marks on the longer questions of Paper 2 and Paper 3, which is exactly where targeted practice pays off in a few weeks.

An IA draft at the top of its band: the exploration or investigation is marked against published criteria, and a draft that already meets them tells the teacher the coursework will not drag the grade down. Consistency: two or three class tests at the higher grade make the prediction easy to defend in the moderation meeting.

What does not work is arguing after the fact. Once predictions are on the application, schools change them only in rare cases.

For May candidates, results arrive in early July. If the final total and the HL grades meet the conditional offer, the place is confirmed. If they fall short, the university decides: a candidate one point short in a subject the course does not care about is sometimes accepted anyway, while oversubscribed courses tend to hold the line.

The options after that are a re-mark requested through the school, the insurance choice, or Clearing in the UK. Since final totals often land a point or two below predicted, the safest position is a prediction with a margin above the offer, and a spring spent closing the specific gaps the autumn mock exposed.